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Tug of war between stimuli, virus leaves EM investors torn

(Bloomberg) – Emerging market investors enter the first week of May with as much reason to be gloomy as they are happy, for all the support emanating from U.S. stimulus packages, accommodating central banks and rising commodity prices , concerns about the deepening of Covid in India. The crisis, escalating US-Russian tensions and the Huarong debt saga in China could give buyers pause for thought. Traders have become less optimistic about the outlook for developing countries amid rising inflation, with most of those who have sought refuge in cash not yet ready to implement it, according to a survey by HSBC Holdings Plc . the favorable winds of the economic recovery in the United States and the very difficult infectious situation in countries like Brazil and India, ”said Tai Hui, chief Asian market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management in Hong Kong. “A stronger recovery in the United States could also lead to potential inflation and higher yields, which could limit progress in markets that are traditionally vulnerable to rising Treasury yields.” Listen to EM Weekly podcast: Virus resurgence adds to ‘Sell in May’ MoodMorgan Stanley said he favors emerging market local debt over currencies as central banks in developing countries are likely to refrain from tightening too much . Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank AG predicts the Chinese yuan may continue to rally due to strong inflows while recommending a cautious stance on the Turkish lira, while April turned out to be a positive month for markets emerging markets, with bonds and currencies posting their first monthly gains of 2021, history suggests potential challenges ahead. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, May has been a losing month for stocks, currencies and local bonds of developing countries in at least seven of the past 10 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Brazil’s central bank could raise its Selic key rate by 75 basis points to 3.5% on Wednesday, economists surveyed by Bloomberg said Bloomberg Economics expects the monetary authority to signal there are more hikes to come while indicating decisions April trade balance figures will be released on Monday, March industrial production comes on Wednesday and retail sales are expected on Friday The real was the second biggest winner among emerging market currencies in April Brazilian investors will also be keen on any update on a lower internal report that could help kick-start discussions on tax reform. The Senate will also continue its probe into President Jair Bolsonaro’s handling of the pandemic.The Central Bank of Turkey will likely keep its key rate at 19% on Thursday after Governor Sahap Kavcioglu’s vow to maintain tight monetary policy helped the lira to beat most of his peers last. week “Rising inflation and the promise to keep rates above price hikes will keep the central bank from slacking as political leaders want,” Bloomberg Economics said in a report Monday’s data showed as Turkey’s annual inflation rate climbed to 17.1% in April, slashing the Thai central bank meets on Wednesday while Malaysia meets on Thursday, with both prepared to keep interest rates low All-time highs, Thai policymakers will leave their benchmark at 0.5% for the next 12 months despite resurgence of virus cases, Barclays economists Brian Tan and Shreya Sodhani in Singapore wrote in a note. The BOT last lowered its benchmark in May 2020. The baht is the worst performing currency in emerging Asia this year Malaysia unveiled a 20 billion ringgit ($ 4.9 billion ) in March and started a vaccination program in February to speed up recovery. Exports have returned to pre-Covid-19 levels and an accommodative stance would further support growth, according to economists at Morgan Stanley, including Deyi Tan in Singapore, Bank Negara Malaysia last relaxed in July 2020. The ringgit has weakened by around 2% this year in Eastern Europe, Poland and the Czech Republic likely to leave key rates unchanged Investors will watch the minutes of Colombia’s central bank meeting in April on Monday to find clues on the way forward after policymakers leave the policy rate intact Wednesday, the country will release April CPI data, which will likely show an annual increase What remains at WatchNations across the developing world has Manufacturing PMI announced for April On Monday, the PMI for manufacturing in Brazil fell in April from a month earlier early; Manufacturing activity in Asia remained robust through April, although a gauge of factory output in China, the region’s largest economy and industrial powerhouse, showed signs of cooling Indonesia released data on Monday CPI showing that annual price gains accelerated to 1.4% in April, the fastest pace since January. South Korea releases its own figures on Tuesday, while the Philippines and Thailand release theirs on Wednesday and Taiwan follows Thursday Indonesia releases first quarter GDP data on Wednesday. Southeast Asia’s largest economy likely shrank 0.7% from a year earlier, an improvement from the 2.2% decline in the fourth quarter, according to a Bloomberg survey. The rupee is one of the biggest losers this year in Asia. South Korea will release March current account figures on Friday. The surplus widened to $ 8 billion in March from $ 7 billion in February China’s trade figures, due on Friday, will show the extent of the country’s economic recovery Reports on foreign exchange reserves, the Caixin PMI’s current account and services gauge will be released on the same day. The yuan has strengthened nearly 1% this year, Taiwan will release trade data on Friday. Export expansion helped the local dollar appreciate 2% this year, emerging Asia’s best performance Philippines to release trade statistics on Friday Russian inflation likely slowed in April but remains well above the central bank’s 4% target. the central bank, which is expected to continue to tighten policy in the face of “ very alarming ” risks, Bloomberg Economics said in a report, as a hawkish central bank, rising oil prices and de-escalating tensions with Ukraine will help the ruble to strengthen. towards 71 ​​per dollar over the next three months, political friction with the United States could limit further gains, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report The Chilean peso strengthened as Imacec, a gross domestic product indicator, was rising at the fastest rate of near Friday, traders will look at April CPI data for any sign of mounting inflationary pressures In Mexico, April CPI data released on Friday It will likely show a jump from a month earlier, according to Bloomberg Economics (Updates with Mexico, Brazil PMIs. PMI Asia, Indonesia CPI data updated earlier.) For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com Subscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted source of business news. © 2021 Bloomberg LP



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